Actionable Ideas: June 21, 2026

I’m Accumulating Bitcoin & Ethereum: June 21, 2026

Bitcoin is down 50%. Ethereum is down 65%. Most investors are calling this a crypto winter. So why am I buying?

My current positions:

• Long Bitcoin at $63,155

• Long Ethereum at $1,753

Why I’m Buying

After a brutal decline, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60,000 level. While nobody knows for certain where the bottom is, the market may be starting to form a base.

Bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its recent high, while Ethereum is still down about 65%.

Many investors continue to describe the current environment as a crypto winter. Historically, however, some of the best long-term opportunities have emerged during periods of maximum pessimism.

In previous cycles, including 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced drawdowns of 70% to 90% before eventually recovering and reaching new highs.

This cycle may be somewhat different because Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience around the $60,000 level despite significant selling pressure.

As a long-term investor, I’ve started accumulating.

Contrarian Signal #1: Bitcoin Supply in Loss

One of the most interesting metrics I’m watching is Bitcoin Supply in Loss versus Supply in Profit.

Earlier this month, Glassnode data showed that more Bitcoin was being held at an unrealized loss than at a profit.

Approximately 10.5 million Bitcoin were underwater compared to 9.8 million Bitcoin in profit.

Historically, this type of crossover has only occurred during deep bear markets and major corrections.

When most holders are losing money, fear tends to become extreme. Weak hands often sell, and markets can begin forming important bottoms.

Contrarian Signal #2: Bitcoin ETF Flows

The second indicator I’m watching is Bitcoin ETF money flows.

Rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows recently fell to roughly negative $5.7 billion, the most negative reading since the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024.

This suggests ETF investors have been selling aggressively and sentiment is significantly worse than it was a few months ago.

However, if ETFs have already experienced their worst outflows on record and Bitcoin is still holding around $60,000, it may suggest that much of the selling pressure has already occurred.

Risks to My Thesis

There are definitely risks.

Inflation remains stubborn, and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently announced that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to keep interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

Several policymakers still expect higher rates by the end of 2026.

Higher interest rates generally create headwinds for assets like Bitcoin, gold, and growth stocks because cash becomes more attractive.

Think about it this way:

If you can earn 5% risk-free in cash, investors may be less willing to own assets that don’t generate income.

So in the short term, higher rates and inflation could continue to pressure Bitcoin.

The Long-Term Bitcoin Bull Case

My long-term Bitcoin thesis has very little to do with replacing the U.S. dollar.

Instead, it centers on government debt, deficits, and money creation (printing money).

Governments around the world continue to spend aggressively and accumulate debt. Over time, printing money can reduce the purchasing power of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar.

That’s where scarce assets may benefit.

Historically, assets such as gold, real estate, and now Bitcoin have been viewed as stores of value.

Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist, and roughly 20 million have already been mined.

Unlike fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, no central authority can simply create more Bitcoin.

Add growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs holding roughly 6% of the total supply, and a globally transferable network, and the long-term investment case becomes easier to understand.

Why I’m Also Buying Ethereum

Ethereum is often viewed as more than just a cryptocurrency.

It’s a platform that powers stablecoins, decentralized finance, tokenized assets, NFTs, and many other blockchain applications.

The investment thesis is simple:

If more money and financial activity move onto blockchains, Ethereum could become a key piece of that infrastructure.

Because of that, Ethereum may offer higher upside than Bitcoin, but it also carries more risk.

Bitcoin is generally considered the safer option because it has a simpler “digital gold” narrative, broader institutional adoption, larger ETF inflows, and less technological complexity.

Final Thoughts

Nobody knows whether Bitcoin or Ethereum have reached their ultimate bottom.

Prices could certainly move lower.

But when fear is elevated, ETF outflows are at record levels, and more than half of Bitcoin holders have recently been underwater, I believe the risk-reward is becoming increasingly attractive for long-term investors. That’s why I’m accumulating.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Any positions mentioned represent trades I may or may not make within my own portfolio and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Always do your own research and consider your individual financial circumstances before investing.